In September 2020, Baku began a full-scale military offensive to retake the occupied territories after years of diplomatic deadlock. The cease-fire agreement, concluded on November 9, 2020, with
mediation by the Russian Federation, established, among other things, modified border demarcations, creating new facts in the South Caucasus region.
But the cease-fire was fragile. In September 2023, Azerbaijan began a new offensive on the region.The very next day, a ceasefire was agreed upon under Russia's mediation. Shortly thereafter, Azerbaijan declared military victory over Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The situation of the Armenian population in the region, suffering under Azerbaijan's recent blockade, had become catastrophic in recent months. After the offensive, a mass exodus of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia began; by now, almost the entire population is said to have fled there. According to the plans of the Azerbaijani government, the "state" of Nagorno-Karabakh will cease to exist by January 1, 2024.